Okay, so I started thinking about the US Open cut line for 2024 pretty early, you know, just trying to get a feel for things as a fan.
My First Steps
First thing I did, really, was just pull up the early scores on Thursday. You gotta see how the field is handling the course right out of the gate. Pinehurst No. 2, everyone knows it’s a beast. So I wasn’t expecting crazy low numbers. I kept an eye on the leaderboard, just casually, seeing where the bulk of the players were settling.
Then, I started thinking about past US Opens. What I usually do is look back, maybe the last 5 or 10 years. Especially the ones played on really tough tracks. You look at those cut lines. Was it +4? +5? Sometimes even higher. That gives you a baseline, sort of.
Digging a Bit Deeper
Pinehurst No. 2 itself, I thought about its history. It’s hosted the Open before. I tried to remember what the cut was those years. Didn’t look up the exact numbers instantly, more like trying to recall the general difficulty. My memory’s not perfect, but I knew it wasn’t typically an easy cut there.
Weather’s always a big one. So I checked the forecast for Thursday and Friday in North Carolina. Wind is huge at the US Open. Rain too, but wind really makes those tough courses play even harder. If it looked breezy, I mentally nudged my expected cut number higher. If it looked calm, maybe a little lower.
- Checked Thursday scores
- Looked at historical US Open cuts on tough courses
- Considered Pinehurst No. 2’s reputation
- Checked the weather forecast (wind!)
Watching it Unfold and Making a Guess
As Friday’s round got going, that’s when you really start watching the line. You see guys hovering around a certain number. Maybe +4, +5, +6. You watch the live “projected cut” feature that some sites have, but honestly, I take that with a grain of salt early on. It jumps around too much.
I look at the density of players around certain scores. If there’s a huge bunch of guys at +5 and +6, and the conditions aren’t getting easier, you figure the cut’s probably going to be around there. It’s not scientific, just watching the flow.
The key is how many players are inside the top 60 and ties. That number dictates the line. So I was watching, seeing if guys were dropping shots late in the day or making birdies. A couple of bad holes from guys on the edge can move the line up quickly.
So, putting it all together – the tough course, the historical data, the current scores, the weather – I started leaning towards a number. Maybe +5 or +6 felt about right this year, given Pinehurst. It’s just a guess, you know, based on what I saw and what I usually see happen. You watch enough golf, you start to get a feel for it. It’s just part of the fun, trying to figure it out before it’s official.
